Where and when to see the northern lights
Aurora happens in a ring around the magnetic pole. People living under that ring see aurora on any dark clear night with moderate activity.
This is a probability forecast, not a guarantee. Cloud cover and city light cancel out any good forecast.
Kp
2.33
No storm (Kp below 5)
10/15/26, 9:00 PM UTC
Range
61.7°
Aurora only at very high latitudes.
Forecast
2.67
Oct 16 · Oct 17 · Oct 18
Probability
| Choose a place | Probability | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Greenland | 19% | 64.2, -51.7 |
| Iceland | 15% | 64.9, -19.0 |
| Reykjavik | 15% | 64.1, -21.9 |
| Canada | 9% | 60.0, -110.0 |
| Yellowknife | 9% | 62.5, -114.4 |
| Norway | 8% | 69.0, 19.0 |
| Tromso | 8% | 69.7, 19.0 |
| Sweden | 8% | 67.9, 20.2 |
| Abisko | 8% | 68.4, 18.8 |
| Finland | 8% | 68.4, 27.4 |
| Lapland | 7% | 67.4, 26.6 |
| Fairbanks | 2% | 64.8, -147.7 |
| Scotland | 2% | 57.5, -4.2 |
| Alaska | 1% | 64.0, -150.0 |
| Minnesota | 1% | 47.9, -91.9 |
| Germany | 0% | 53.6, 10.0 |
| Michigan | 0% | 46.5, -87.4 |
| New Zealand | 0% | -45.9, 170.5 |
| Tasmania | 0% | -42.9, 147.3 |
Forecast
| Hour | Oct 16 | Oct 17 | Oct 18 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| 03-06UT | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| 06-09UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 09-12UT | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 12-15UT | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 15-18UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 18-21UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 21-00UT | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
G1–G5
| Range | What it means | lat. |
|---|---|---|
| No storm (Kp below 5) | Aurora only at very high latitudes. | 58.3° |
| G1 — Minor (Kp 5) | Aurora visible in northern Scandinavia, Alaska and Canada. | 56.3° |
| G2 — Moderate (Kp 6) | Aurora may reach southern Norway, Scotland and the northern US. | 54.2° |
| G3 — Strong (Kp 7) | Aurora seen in Germany, Poland and the central US. | 52.2° |
| G4 — Severe (Kp 8) | Aurora at mid latitudes; power grid and GPS problems. | 50.1° |
| G5 — Extreme (Kp 9) | Aurora near the tropics; real risk to grids and satellites. | 48.1° |
Data from 10/16/26, 2:26 AM UTC
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction CenterLicence: Domínio público (dado federal dos EUA) · Credit: NOAA / SWPCEsta página não é um serviço da NOAA e não tem endosso da NOAA.
How to read these numbers
The best season in the northern hemisphere runs from September to March, not because there is more solar activity but because the nights are long and dark. Around the equinoxes, in September and March, the coupling between the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields is more efficient, which historically yields more storms.
Established places: northern Norway (Tromsø), northern Sweden (Abisko), Finnish Lapland, Iceland, interior Alaska (Fairbanks) and north west Canada (Yellowknife). Inland skies are usually clearer, which makes up for slightly lower latitude.
What has to line up on the same night
- Enough geomagnetic activity for your latitude (check the Kp).
- Clear sky: low cloud cancels everything.
- Real darkness, away from city light and close to new moon.
- An unobstructed northern horizon, if you are at mid latitude.
- Patience: aurora comes in pulses, with gaps of half an hour or more.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best month?
- At auroral latitudes, September to March. In June and July the far northern sky never gets dark.
- Do I need a special camera?
- Not to watch, but for photos a tripod, a few seconds of exposure and high ISO help. A modern phone in night mode already records faint aurora the eye barely sees.