Northern lights in Scotland
Probability of visible aurora in Scotland within the next half hour, with the current Kp and the three day outlook.
This is a probability forecast, not a guarantee. Cloud cover and city light cancel out any good forecast.
Probability
2%
10/16/26, 2:10 AM UTC
Kp
2.33
No storm (Kp below 5)
10/15/26, 9:00 PM UTC
Position
57.48, -4.22
Range: 61.7°
Forecast
| Hour | Oct 16 | Oct 17 | Oct 18 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| 03-06UT | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| 06-09UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 09-12UT | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 12-15UT | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 15-18UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 18-21UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 21-00UT | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
G1–G5
| Range | What it means | lat. |
|---|---|---|
| No storm (Kp below 5) | Aurora only at very high latitudes. | 58.3° |
| G1 — Minor (Kp 5) | Aurora visible in northern Scandinavia, Alaska and Canada. | 56.3° |
| G2 — Moderate (Kp 6) | Aurora may reach southern Norway, Scotland and the northern US. | 54.2° |
| G3 — Strong (Kp 7) | Aurora seen in Germany, Poland and the central US. | 52.2° |
| G4 — Severe (Kp 8) | Aurora at mid latitudes; power grid and GPS problems. | 50.1° |
| G5 — Extreme (Kp 9) | Aurora near the tropics; real risk to grids and satellites. | 48.1° |
Choose a place
How to read this page
How to read the probability
The 2% chance computed here uses the current Kp index (2.33) and the location’s latitude; it’s a visibility estimate, not a guarantee.
Where this data comes from
Kp index and the probability grid come from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.
What can still go wrong
Cloud, a full moon and light pollution block the view even at high Kp; the Kp forecast itself still shifts a few hours out.
Words on this page
Kp index
A 0-to-9 number summarising the disturbance of Earth’s magnetic field over a three-hour window, measured by a network of observatories. Kp 5 is the weakest geomagnetic storm on NOAA’s G scale, and the higher the Kp, the further from the pole the aurora can be seen.
Standard definition by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center · Kp index
Preliminary data
A measurement published as soon as it is collected, before the agency’s final review. It can be corrected or withdrawn: earthquake magnitudes shift in the first hours, air-quality readings are revised weeks later. Use it to plan your day, not for regulatory or legal purposes.
Data from 10/16/26, 2:10 AM UTC
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction CenterLicence: Domínio público (dado federal dos EUA) · Credit: NOAA / SWPCEsta página não é um serviço da NOAA e não tem endosso da NOAA.
How to read these numbers
The probability comes from the OVATION model, read at the grid point nearest Scotland. It does not account for cloud: check the local weather forecast before going out.
Frequently asked questions
- Can I see the aurora in Scotland tonight?
- Compare the current probability with the Kp forecast for the night. Above 30% with a clear sky is a good chance.
- What is the best hour in Scotland?
- Usually between 10 pm and 2 am local time, around magnetic midnight.