Northern lights in New Zealand
Probability of visible aurora in New Zealand within the next half hour, with the current Kp and the three day outlook.
This is a probability forecast, not a guarantee. Cloud cover and city light cancel out any good forecast.
Probability
0%
10/16/26, 1:21 AM UTC
Kp
2.33
No storm (Kp below 5)
10/15/26, 9:00 PM UTC
Position
-45.87, 170.50
Range: 61.7°
Forecast
| Hour | Oct 16 | Oct 17 | Oct 18 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| 03-06UT | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| 06-09UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 09-12UT | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 12-15UT | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 15-18UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 18-21UT | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 21-00UT | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
G1–G5
| Range | What it means | lat. |
|---|---|---|
| No storm (Kp below 5) | Aurora only at very high latitudes. | 58.3° |
| G1 — Minor (Kp 5) | Aurora visible in northern Scandinavia, Alaska and Canada. | 56.3° |
| G2 — Moderate (Kp 6) | Aurora may reach southern Norway, Scotland and the northern US. | 54.2° |
| G3 — Strong (Kp 7) | Aurora seen in Germany, Poland and the central US. | 52.2° |
| G4 — Severe (Kp 8) | Aurora at mid latitudes; power grid and GPS problems. | 50.1° |
| G5 — Extreme (Kp 9) | Aurora near the tropics; real risk to grids and satellites. | 48.1° |
Choose a place
How to read this page
How to read the probability
The 0% chance computed here uses the current Kp index (2.33) and the location’s latitude; it’s a visibility estimate, not a guarantee.
Where this data comes from
Kp index and the probability grid come from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.
What can still go wrong
Cloud, a full moon and light pollution block the view even at high Kp; the Kp forecast itself still shifts a few hours out.
Words on this page
Kp index
A 0-to-9 number summarising the disturbance of Earth’s magnetic field over a three-hour window, measured by a network of observatories. Kp 5 is the weakest geomagnetic storm on NOAA’s G scale, and the higher the Kp, the further from the pole the aurora can be seen.
Standard definition by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center · Kp index
Preliminary data
A measurement published as soon as it is collected, before the agency’s final review. It can be corrected or withdrawn: earthquake magnitudes shift in the first hours, air-quality readings are revised weeks later. Use it to plan your day, not for regulatory or legal purposes.
Data from 10/16/26, 1:21 AM UTC
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction CenterLicence: Domínio público (dado federal dos EUA) · Credit: NOAA / SWPCEsta página não é um serviço da NOAA e não tem endosso da NOAA.
How to read these numbers
The probability comes from the OVATION model, read at the grid point nearest New Zealand. It does not account for cloud: check the local weather forecast before going out.
Frequently asked questions
- Can I see the aurora in New Zealand tonight?
- Compare the current probability with the Kp forecast for the night. Above 30% with a clear sky is a good chance.
- What is the best hour in New Zealand?
- Usually between 10 pm and 2 am local time, around magnetic midnight.