Northern lights forecast
The Kp index measures how disturbed Earth’s magnetic field is, from 0 to 9. The higher it goes, the further south the aurora can be seen.
This is a probability forecast, not a guarantee. Cloud cover and city light cancel out any good forecast.
Kp
2.67
No storm (Kp below 5)
10/15/26, 12:00 PM UTC
Range
61.1°
Aurora only at very high latitudes.
Forecast
2.67
Oct 15 · Oct 16 · Oct 17
Probability
| Choose a place | Probability | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Finland | 32% | 68.4, 27.4 |
| Norway | 31% | 69.0, 19.0 |
| Tromso | 31% | 69.7, 19.0 |
| Sweden | 30% | 67.9, 20.2 |
| Abisko | 30% | 68.4, 18.8 |
| Lapland | 29% | 67.4, 26.6 |
| Iceland | 17% | 64.9, -19.0 |
| Reykjavik | 14% | 64.1, -21.9 |
| Greenland | 12% | 64.2, -51.7 |
| Fairbanks | 9% | 64.8, -147.7 |
| Alaska | 7% | 64.0, -150.0 |
| Yellowknife | 5% | 62.5, -114.4 |
| Canada | 2% | 60.0, -110.0 |
| Scotland | 1% | 57.5, -4.2 |
| Tasmania | 1% | -42.9, 147.3 |
| Germany | 0% | 53.6, 10.0 |
| Michigan | 0% | 46.5, -87.4 |
| Minnesota | 0% | 47.9, -91.9 |
| New Zealand | 0% | -45.9, 170.5 |
Forecast
| Hour | Oct 15 | Oct 16 | Oct 17 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 2.00 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| 03-06UT | 0.67 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| 06-09UT | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| 09-12UT | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 12-15UT | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 15-18UT | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| 18-21UT | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| 21-00UT | 2.33 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
G1–G5
| Range | What it means | lat. |
|---|---|---|
| No storm (Kp below 5) | Aurora only at very high latitudes. | 58.3° |
| G1 — Minor (Kp 5) | Aurora visible in northern Scandinavia, Alaska and Canada. | 56.3° |
| G2 — Moderate (Kp 6) | Aurora may reach southern Norway, Scotland and the northern US. | 54.2° |
| G3 — Strong (Kp 7) | Aurora seen in Germany, Poland and the central US. | 52.2° |
| G4 — Severe (Kp 8) | Aurora at mid latitudes; power grid and GPS problems. | 50.1° |
| G5 — Extreme (Kp 9) | Aurora near the tropics; real risk to grids and satellites. | 48.1° |
Data from 10/15/26, 6:32 PM UTC
- NOAA Space Weather Prediction CenterLicence: Domínio público (dado federal dos EUA) · Credit: NOAA / SWPCEsta página não é um serviço da NOAA e não tem endosso da NOAA.
How to read these numbers
The probability table comes from the NOAA OVATION model, which estimates the chance of visible aurora in the next thirty to forty minutes at each grid point. It is a very short range forecast: use it to decide whether to go out now.
The three day outlook is a different thing: it gives the expected Kp in each three hour window, useful for planning a night. Neither of them knows whether your sky will be clear, and without a clear sky there is no visible aurora.
Frequently asked questions
- Can I see the northern lights tonight?
- Check the current Kp and the probability for your place in the table. At Kp 5 the aurora reaches northern Scandinavia, Alaska and northern Canada; at Kp 7 it can reach Germany and the northern United States.
- What is the best time of night?
- Around local magnetic midnight, usually between 10 pm and 2 am. You also need darkness: near full moon the contrast drops a lot.
- Do southern lights exist?
- Yes, the same phenomenon in the southern hemisphere, visible from Tasmania, southern New Zealand and Patagonia during strong storms.